Forex menguntungkan atau merugikan

Senjata kepunyaan belia juga dilucuti termasuk suatu keris pusaka mempunyai nama Kyai Nogo Siluman. Pihak Belanda kesengsem dengan pusaka tersebut yang kemudian mengirimkannya ke Raja Willem I sebagai hadiah pampasan Perang Jawa. Namun Reaksi Raja Willem acuh, ia bahkan enggan menerima keris itu. Yang pernah menyentuh keris Kyai Nogo Siluman dan menikmati aura kesaktiannya ialah maestro seni lukis Indonesia, Raden Saleh ketika dirinya masih di negeri Kincir Angin.

Semua yang dipunyai seorang Raja menggunakan nama ini. Nogo ialah ular dalam dongeng dengan suatu mahkota di kepalanya. Entah apakah di antara kekayaan nasional Tanah Air ini bisa kembali ke rumahnya, di bumi Indonesia. Share on Facebook. Share on Twitter. Bookmakers have their own opinion about what the fair odds for each event should be.

If they are wrong, and the punter spots the mistake, this is where the profit can be made. As one might expect, the sum of probabilities for all cards will be 52 x 0. These odds are then "unfair", since their associated probability is now higher, at 0. The sum of the probabilities for all cards is now 52 x 0. Mathematically, of course, the sum of probabilities for all possibilities must be 1. The difference between this and the bookmaker's sum of probabilities represents the bookmaker's profit margin.

A book with a total percentage over is said to be overround. In the case just mentioned, the book is overround by 6. This may be expressed by saying that the overround is That is, for every units paid out to punters, the bookmaker can expect to take Since the true probabilities associated with card drawing or dice rolling are mathematically fixed, a punter would be very unwise to bet at the unfair odds offered by a bookmaker. Initially he may be lucky, but over the long term he would find himself at a loss, the magnitude determined by the size of the overround.

In view of this, it is remarkable how many gamblers are still happy to place bets on such games at a casino. When an edge is achievable, for example through card counting, the casino's regulations will usually prevent such a professional from benefiting from his knowledge. In sports betting, however, the fair odds of a particular event occurring cannot be known exactly, and this is perhaps why so many punters, with a belief that they know more than the bookmakers, are prepared to accept the disadvantage that they face through the overround.

For his chosen bets, the punter will hope that the bookmaker has made a mistake in the estimation of the fair odds, allowing him to overcome this disadvantage. Here, the inverse of the decimal odds for one result, of course, is the bookmaker's unfair estimation of the probability of that result occurring.

Of course, whether the bookmaker's idea is accurate about what exactly the true chance of a particular result occurring is, is open to debate. If his customer disagrees, there may be an opportunity for him to make a profit, provided he is more accurate in estimating the true chance of an outcome than the bookmaker.

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Other types of bets attract different overrounds, and it is usually the case that the greater the number of possible outcomes to a sporting event or one of its elements, the greater the bookmaker's overround. The correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are usually only 2 possible outcomes over 2.

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Punters with a keen interest in keeping the bookmaker's disadvantage to a minimum may very well be attracted to other 2-way betting opportunities. In addition to total goals betting and Asian handicap in football, match bets in tennis, snooker, darts, and in fact any two-player sport where there is no possibility of the draw offer excellent betting opportunities. If the bookmaker's odds are unfair, how can a punter ever win? There is no denying that most bookmakers, particularly the well-established firms, are very good at setting prices, estimating the true chance of sporting results and locking in a profit margin.

Nevertheless, sports are not statistically quantifiable, in the sense that cards or other forms of casino gambling are, where simple laws of probability govern the outcome of games like blackjack, roulette and craps. But how can I know what the true probability is of Ronnie O'Sullivan winning the world snooker championship again?

And if I think I know what his chances are, how can I be sure that my estimate is more accurate than the bookmaker's? Unfortunately, the answers to these questions only come with time and experience, by acquiring a "knowledge" of a sport and its betting market, and a familiarity with the way bookmakers set their odds. The good news, however, is that whilst bookmakers are very good at setting odds for sporting events, they, like punters, can make mistakes, sometimes very glaring ones, which knowledgeable bettors will snap up without a moment's hesitation.

Peterka won, and William Hill ceased offering odds for the ski jumping World Cup thereafter. Of course, such large mistakes are relatively rare, but smaller pricing errors do and must exist to account for the few per cent of gamblers who are profiting regularly from fixed odds sports betting. Punters differ in the methods they use to acquire a sports betting "knowledge". Some like to adopt a more mathematical approach by using rating systems based on past performance to predict future outcomes. Still others base their judgement on a subjective feel for the forthcoming event, relying on an inkling or a hunch about what may happen.

And finally there are punters who simply pay others to do the thinking for them, by subscribing to one or more sports advisory services. There is no right or wrong approach to seeking a betting edge. Ultimately, the best one is the one that works for you, one that returns a profit. However, what each approach has in common is a shared aim of finding "value" in the odds, where the true chance of a win is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker. Many punters fail to appreciate the importance of value betting, preferring to subscribe to the "back winners, not losers" school of gambling.

Liverpool, simply, are too good, however poor the price. This analysis is confused because the punter has failed to assess Liverpool's chance of a win in probabilistic terms, but instead rather simply by whether he thinks they will or won't be victorious. The important question a punter should instead be asking is whether the true chance of a winner is greater than that which the bookmaker has unfairly in his mind , but potentially mistakenly in the punter's mind , estimated it to be.

In other words, is the bookmaker's price greater than that which the punter considers to be the fair price? If it is, then he has found betting value, provided he can estimate prices better than the bookmaker, of course. A value bettor will be generally unconcerned about backing the underdog, or perhaps more relevantly backing a team which he thinks will not win underdog or not , provided there is value in the bookmaker's odds.

According to these estimations, the fair odds for the two teams are 1.


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He might believe that Liverpool should win each time, but in this case so does the bookmaker, who has cut his odds. Equally, however, the bookmaker has underestimated the chance of a Sunderland win, offering odds that the value bettor considers, in this case, to represent value. Since odds are just probabilities, value betting offers really the only way to beat the bookmaker.

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A punter can back as many "winners" as he likes, but if he fails to take into account the bookmaker's prices, it may not be enough to return a profit. Really, the argument about value betting is a hypothetical one. The "back winners, not losers" philosophy is itself inherently all about finding a betting edge. If a punter is finding winners and making a profit with them, it means simply that he is winning more bets than the bookmaker believes the punter ought to be winning, according to the odds the bookmaker had set.

If this is the case, the punter has found value and established a betting edge, whether he quantitatively set out to do so or just followed his hunches.


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  • Successful betting, then, is really all about understanding and managing probabilities. Know the true chances of a sporting win, and there may be profitable opportunities waiting at the bookmakers. As Geoff Harvey says in his book Successful Football Betting, "Find the value, [and] the winners will take care of themselves. Technically, there is one way to guarantee that a profit is made from a fixed odds sports bet - arbitrage.

    Different bookmakers vary slightly in the prices they offer for sporting contests.

    Beat The Bookmaker

    If the variation is great enough, a bet can be placed on each outcome at the best available odds using two or more bookmakers, in such a way that, with correct staking, a profit is guaranteed whatever the result of the game. The book for the punter is then said to be "overbroke" and the betting opportunity is known as an arbitrage, sure win or sure bet. Consider the friendly international football match between Greece and Ireland, played on 20th November Bookmaker Home win Draw Away win Bookie 1 1.

    Now, taking the home win price from Bookie 2, the draw price from Bookie 3 and the away win price from Bookie 1, the book is become overbroke by 4. Bookmaker Home win Draw Away win Best odds 2.

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    Naturally, the frequency with which arbitrage opportunities arise is relatively low, since each bookmaker is careful not to ride against the general tide of opinion regarding the pricing of a sporting event. Although overrounds of only a few per cent are not uncommon, perhaps only 1 book in a or fewer is overbroke and capable of yielding an arbitrage opportunity. Nevertheless, given the enormous number of sporting events available for fixed odds betting today, there are still a considerable number of sure bets to be found each and every week.

    Arbitrage might seem like betting's equivalent of the Holy Grail. If the punter profits whatever the result of the sporting event, betting becomes risk-free, right? No form of gambling is entirely risk-free, not even arbitrage. That fact that it is frequently and wrongly acclaimed as being so is perhaps partly due to the use of the term "sure win". There are numerous difficulties associated with arbitrage betting that can and do eat into the profits, sometimes with potentially disastrous consequences.

    The first issue to consider with arbitrage betting is stake size. The majority of arbitrage opportunities are limited to only a few per cent at best. Consequently, stakes have to be large to secure any form of sizeable profit.